Is climate the great driving force behind dengue infections in urbans areas? A study in dengue-endemic Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic

Abstract

Introduction: The Caribbean Region is home to Dengue viruses and its vectors due its tropical climate. With new evidence of climate change, monitoring of climatologic factors has emerged as a prevention strategy for tropical infections. Understanding tropical disease dynamics based on climatologic variables is the key to achieve eradication of arthropodborne diseases, especially in heavily populated urban areas. Aim: The aim of this study is to describe the relationship between climatologic factors and dengue cases in Santo Domingo. Methods: Weekly dengue reports from January 2012 to December 2017 were extracted from the Ministry of Health database. Meanwhile, Maximum, Minimum and Mean Temperature, Rainfall and Relative Humidity were obtained from to the National Meteorological Office. Correlations of individual factors were calculated using 1 weeks and 12 weeks. Regressions for these lags were conducted to explain the individuality of the climatologic factors. Results: The 1-week lag shows a correlation between Dengue Cases and Average Temperature (rho=0.22, p < .01), Dengue Cases and Rain (rho = -.14, p < .05), and Dengue Cases and Humidity (rho = -.16, p < .05.). The regression model performed at 1 week lag explains 4% of the variance and was a significant predictor F(3,308), p < 0.01; Average temperature (B = 11.26, p < 0.01) and Humidity (B = -4.08, p < 0.01) contributed significantly to the model. The12 weeks lag shows a negative correlation between Dengue Cases and Mean Temperature (rho= -0.20, p< 0.001; Average Temperature (B = -28.67, p…. Conclusion: The relation between climate and infectious diseases in urban areas is complex. Temperature, rainfall and humidity has demonstrated to individually correlate with Dengue infections in the city of Santo Domingo. Strategies must be developed to take into consideration the changing climate experienced in the Dominican territory as well to compare the climatologic drive for dengue infections in other parts of the nation.