Conditional cash transfers and high school graduation: evidence from a large-scale program in the Dominican Republic

Abstract

Conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs are widely implemented in developing countries but evidence of their effects on educational achievements is still growing. This paper examines the impact of a large-scale CCT program on high school graduation in the Dominican Republic. Using a quasi-experimental approach, we combine extensive educational, administrative, and household records from program participants across the country and exploit variations in the amount of schooling transfers provided. We find that receiving additional transfers targeted to high school education is, on average, associated with an 11.7–13.2 percentage-point higher likelihood of completing school relative to non-recipients, corresponding to a 23–25.3% increase in graduation rates. The positive effects are consistent across locations and genders. Complementary estimations suggest that receiving transfers in the final year of high school is particularly important. The impacts on school performance – grades and on-time graduation – are, however, less clear and vary across urban and rural areas. Overall, the results indicate non-negligible effects on employment, salaries, and the postponement of parenthood as participants enter later life stages.